On the evening of 15th June 2020, India came close to the brink of a new war. Many experts perceived this clash, which took place along the Pangong Tso lake, situated in the “Grey zone” between Indian claimed and Chinese claimed Line of Actual Control (LAC), to escalate into another full-fledged war, like the 1962 Sino-Indian war. If at all a war breaks out, it would not take place along the dry and cold Tibetian flatlands or the ice-capped Upper Himalayan mountains, but 2000 km South, far away from the gigantic formations, in the deep blue waters of the Indian Ocean.
Why the Indian Ocean?
Even after fighting a medium scale war, several small scale skirmishes once in a while and confrontations almost on a day to day basis, the terrain around the LAC is not favorable for a full-fledged war, involving the armies and air forces of both the belligerents. Even deployment of a large legion of forces, the resources put to action, would not achieve their full potential effectively. Both the belligerent would have their own first-mover advantages as well as tactical and strategic impediments, but these would still result in high casualty numbers. Moreover, this is further supported by the fact that both the nations are nuclear powers, and have a well developed “nuclear triad”, under their helm, which they can call upon at their discretion. Knowing the fact that a nuclear war is a no-win situation for both the nations, a war with greater ramifications is better off the charts than an indecisive war being prevented.
What’s so significant about the Indian Ocean?
The Indian Ocean is the only major water body named after a country, but as Dr. Subramanian Swamy says,
“The Indian Ocean might be named after India, but there is nothing Indian about it”.
The Indian Ocean is a strategic maritime area to be dominated, both during peacetime and wartime due to the following reason:
The Indian Ocean covers 19.8% of the earth's ocean surface. It shares its stores with 28 countries, yielding a great volume of shipping tonnage passing through the area. As of 2017 estimates, the Indian Ocean’s shipping economy contributes 166 million TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit) of cargo annually, and that 23 of the world’s 100 oil-exporting ports lie within the waters of the Indian Ocean. As per the same report, the Indian Ocean also contributes to 17.8% of gold mined globally.
Why should the Indian Ocean be dominated:
As the ancient Chinese General and strategist Sun Tzu says:
"Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer”
India’s foreign policy has always emphasized on “non aggression” and “ respect it’s neighbors territorial sovereignty” . This, however, has over the years, led to the underestimating of the Chinese imperialistic policy of area dominance. The aftermath of the 1962 Sino-Indian war, has taught India a lesson that unfinished territorial businesses with the Chinese would lead to undesirable consequences, such as the clashes at the Pangong Tso lake.
Apart from claiming parts of the Indian Territory using the “Salami slicing” tactic ( where Chinese army would send a small patrol party inside its neighbors’ territory and claim it as Chinese territory, if they don’t encounter any response to their encroachment : a plan which backfired near Pangong Tso last month), China has initiated the plan of “String of Pearls” policy to isolate India in the Indian Ocean. The best example for this would be the Sri Lankan port of Hambanthotta, and the Pakistani port of Gwadar. While the latter is a part of the CPEC programme (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor), the former is a result of unpayable debt by the Sri Lankan government to the Chinese government, following the borrowings made after the Sri Lankan Civil war (1983-2009), leading to the port being taken by the Chinese for a 99 year lease period. These might sound very trivial, but during wartime, these ports can help faster and easier deployment of the PLA-N (People’s Liberation Army-Navy) against India, considering the quantitative advantage of the PLA-N over the Indian Navy.
Another reason is that if China begins to assert its helm over the Indian Ocean, the Chinese maritime revenue would drastically increase, fueling the already imperialistic ambitions of the Chinese government. The revenue would be used to further develop a stronger navy, and also buy out more such ports such as Hambanthotta or construct more ports like Gwadar to support easier deployment.
How should India respond?
Technically, India cannot oppose China with the mere use of diplomacy or soft power, as its been doing for this long. The ideal tactic would be to strengthen its fleet. There are two ways of dealing with this:
1. Area Dominance : Dominating the high seas using a show stopping naval prowess, through expedition and expansion.
2. Area Denial: Denying the already established area of control to any foreign diplomatic intervention
While the former is a more costly and aggressive stance, the latter suits more to the Indian foreign and nuclear policy. However, both these strategies require the navy to build up on its resources and assets. India, as of now, is having an upper hand, as the Indian Navy is classified as a "semi-blue water navy” (meaning it can strike anywhere across the globe, with adequate logistical help from her allies ), and that the PLA-N is still a “brown water navy” (meaning it is more capable of fighting inland and within its territorial waters), but the problem here is that the Chinese leadership has taken the first mover advantage by starting to modernize it's navy, and India needs to hurry up it’s modernization program to keep up with. China still needs another 5-10 years to be classified as a blue water navy, a potentially threatening force to reckon with.
Dragon sails the ocean: A PLA-N Yuzhou class (Type 071) Amphibious Assault craft
How should India respond?
While there are proponents for both the strategies, there is an inward debate regarding the same: if the navy has to work on increasing it’s assets, how would they pursue it? One school of thought emphasizes on building another aircraft carrier, if not a supercarrier, whilst another school believes in building a bigger submarine infrastructure.
What I strongly believe is that India should go for building it’s submarine infrastructure, as building an aircraft carrier is a costly affair. An aircraft carrier needs to be equipped with its own complement of aircraft, defense systems and ASW equipment. Nevertheless an aircraft carrier also requires to have its own Carrier Battle Group to operate. In a practical situation, air combat wouldn’t take in a 1v1 fashion, and there are high chances that the Indian aviation fleet might get overwhelmed by the sheer numerical superiority of the PLAAF (Peoples Liberation Army Air Force) and PLANAF (PLA-Naval Air Force). In an unforseen circumstance like a battle, the loss of an aircraft carrier, would impede a bigger loss to India, unlike the USA, which has a vast carrier flotilla. Construction and operations of aircraft carriers can cost in billions of dollars annually, which seems to be something not viable when there are shortage of funds.
INS Vikramaditya : Flagship of the Indian Navy
On the other hand, submarines are cheaper to produce, procure and operate as compared to an aircraft carrier. These boats can be used to patrol the several “shallow choke points”, such as the Strait of Malacca, to deter the entry of the PLA-N into the Bay of Bengal. Even if these boats are powered by conventional Diesel Electric powerplant, they can hold up the invading forces until reinforcements arrive. The ideal choice for this would be any 3rd generation Diesel Electric submarine, such as the Russian made Kilo-class, improved Kilo-class or Lada-class submarines. Nuclear powered submarine classes, such as Project 971 Typhoon-class submarines or the newer Severodvinsk class submarines, could be a potential weapon, but end up being more costlier than conventional submarines, thus being procured in smaller numbers. A submarine is an asset which can be used for over 35 years, with various modifications…
Project 636 "Improved Kilo-class" submarine
The Surfacing Shark: Russian submarine belonging to the Project 971 "Shchuka-B" class (NATO: Akula-class) surfacing
Whatever be the situation, to safeguard the interests of our motherland, it must be a priority that India is second to none, both diplomatically and militarily, and leave no stone unturned to keep India safe from the evil eyes trying to prey on her…
By: Arjun Iyer
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